Sustainable PE will make up larger share of new output – US Dow

HOUSTON (ICIS)–A growing amount of new polyethylene (PE) capacity will come from sustainable plastic made from recycled materials or renewable feedstock, according to forecasts that Dow published on Thursday.

The new capacity will meet growing demand, which Dow expects will continue rising at a multiple of 1.2-1.4X of GDP.

The following chart shows Dow’s forecast for PE demand growth and the composition of new capacity.

Source: Dow
Adv recycling – advanced recycling, also known as chemical recycling

A large portion of PE made with petroleum will be associated with carbon fees. Total fossil-based demand will continue to grow at 2-3%, Dow said, with a bias towards low and zero carbon production.

DOW’S FORECASTS POINT TO FEWER TRADITIONAL PE PLANTS
If Dow’s forecasts hold true, then the world will need fewer crackers and traditional PE plants.

By 2050, a large portion of sustainable PE production will be made up of mechanical recycling. Another portion will come from chemical recycling, which would provide feedstock to traditional PE plants.

The remainder will come from renewable sources. Right now, renewable PE is made from dehydrating ethanol to produce ethylene. The ethylene is then fed into a traditional PE plant.